Atletico Mineiro v River Plate.

Could River be on course to lift their fifth Libertadores (CL) title and thus edge to within one of their great rivals, Boca Juniors?

They negotiated the group stage of this year’s competition without losing, to become the top seed going into the knockout phase.

After which they eliminated fellow Argentines’ Talleres and then Colo Colo, thanks to a winner from Facundo Collidio in the Monumental.

Guiding them through these final phases has been Marcelo Gallardo, who returned to the club after a period managing in Saudi Arabia.

Gallardo is already a legend having both played in the 1996 winning team and coached them to their epic victory over Boca in 2018.

Now 48, he will have the onerous task of getting past a leading Brazilian team before, hopefully, leading River to glory in their own stadium against either Penarol or Botafogo.

The pressure will be enormous but he has been there before.

Up against the Argentinians will be Atletico Mineiro, the Belo Horizonte-based team who have one Libertadores (from 2013) in their palmares.

Like River, Galo topped their group (which included Penarol) to also feature prominently in the seedings for the final phase.

Following which they got past San Lorenzo and then the holders, Fluminense, when new striker Deyverson netted a double at the Arena MRV.

Facing Gallardo will be another Argentine coach, Gabriel Milito, who has been in charge at Atletico since early 2024.

They will know each other well, having played for the same national team as well as meeting in the Argentine league.

Perhaps Milito’s local experience might help balance the advantage Gallardo and co. will have in staging the second leg at home.

Both these teams have regular scorers, 24-year-old Paulinho for the Brazilians and the more experienced Colombian Miguel Borja for River.

One of them could be vital in deciding the outcome.

While highly rated River teenagers, Franco Mastantuono and Manchester City loanee Claudio Echeverri, are two players who could well enhance their reputation. 

Neither River or Atletico are likely to win their respective leagues, being some way adrift from the leaders, hence they can apply full focus to the CL (though the Brazilians might have to cope with more injury concerns)

Overall, the odds favour River, and to win through to a CL final in the Monumental would indeed be very special for Los Millonarios and their millions of fans.

Botafogo v Penarol.

Botafogo go into this semi-final strongly favoured to win against their Uruguayan opponents.

The Brazilians currently lead Serie A and despite a famous implosion in 2023 could be on course for their first league crown in nearly 30 years together with a maiden Copa Libertadores.

But there will be plenty of cynics doubting their ability to deliver on either.

Fogo made it out of their group but did suffer losses in Quito and, more surprisingly, at home to Junior of Colombia.

That meant a lower seeded position going into the final stages.

However, they did make into the last four despite very tight encounters with fellow Serie A heavyweights Palmeiras and Sao Paulo (via spot kicks in the Morumbi)

Beating those other leading Brazilian teams, having the highest-rated players, and now facing less heralded Penarol no doubt contributes to Fogo being solidly backed to win through to the final.

Under Portuguese coach Artur Jorge they can call on young attacking talent such as Thiago Almada, Luiz Henrique, Matheus Martins, and Junior Santos.

But Penarol will be trying to upset the odds as they aim to reach an impressive eleventh CL final (and claim their sixth crown)

The Montevideo giants progressed from second place in the same group as Atletico Mineiro and following their defeat of The Strongest got the better of Rio’s Flamengo.

Winger Javier Cabrera scored the only goal in that tie, in the Maracana.

Led by the well-travelled Diego Aguirre, who lists Brazilian clubs amongst his extensive managerial CV, Penarol fields a predominantly local squad headed by striker Maximiliano Silvera and midfielder Leonardo Fernandez.

Undoubtedly it will be a major surprise if the Uruagayans do beat Botafogo but they have the advantage of playing the second leg at home and have less domestic pressure.

Unlike their opponents who have to balance league and CL commitments (and a reputation for stumbling at the finish)

Analysis – John Bethell